Recent Insights

Cracks Gradually Form in the Job Market
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Cracks Gradually Form in the Job Market

It’s not that all workers have their pick of jobs, but many businesses have struggled to fill open positions. We see it in the never-ending stream of help wanted signs.

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The Dollar vs the World
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The Dollar vs the World

Recently, investors are viewing the soaring greenback with apprehension, as some fret over tensions in global markets and added headwinds for earnings of firms that conduct a significant share of business overseas.

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Interest Rates - Higher for Longer
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Interest Rates - Higher for Longer

Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy. For starters, the economic expansion of the 1990s and the 2010s, the longest expansions on record per the National Bureau of Economic Research (data pre-dates the Civil War), was assisted by low inflation.

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Good Economic News May Encourage Further Hawkishness
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Good Economic News May Encourage Further Hawkishness

The rate of inflation may have already peaked, but whether the rate of inflation might plateau, decline slowly, or fall quickly is up for debate. Yet, even if inflation has peaked, we aren’t yet seeing ‘peak hawkishness’ from Fed officials. Consequently, good economic news may encourage further hawkishness and rate hikes, which has created headwinds for stocks.

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A Steady Jobs Report
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A Steady Jobs Report

When the economy is expanding, employment typically increases. When the economy is contracting, the number of employed usually declines. Currently, the number of job openings makes it easier to find work in some industries. It appears to be adding to the robust numbers.

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Green Shoots
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Green Shoots

Inflation is high, interest rates are rising, and even though our partners at ITR are seeing “green shoots,” they are still small. What accounts for the recent rally?

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Scoping Out Peak Inflation
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Scoping Out Peak Inflation

When investors talk about peak inflation, they aren’t defining it as a peak in prices followed by an actual decline. Peak inflation would better be described as a peak in the rate of inflation followed by a slowdown in the rate of inflation.

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