Q1 didn’t reflect weakness in consumer or business spending. In fact, it was just the opposite. Government stimulus helped last year. The strong GDP numbers early in the recovery are unlikely to repeat.

First quarter earnings season is in full swing, and as we’ve seen in prior quarters, analysts have been too conservative with their initial estimates. Much of last week, however, investors fretted over how quickly the Fed might raise interest rates.

A 1.2% rise in the Consumer Price Index last month was the biggest increase since 2005, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Given the spike in energy tied to the Russia-Ukraine war, March’s inflation report was no surprise.

Two important economic themes have dominated the landscape this year: high inflation and interest rates.

Over the last nine months, growth has been impressive, with the 3-month average holding within a range of 500,000—650,000. One important reason growth has been strong: a record number of job openings.

Since the start of 2021, there has been only one month when the Consumer Price Index rose less than the consensus forecast, according to Bespoke Investment Group. February did not depart from the trend.

The uncertainty over the war in Ukraine overshadowed a strong employment report, which signaled the economy continued to expand into February.

Analysts say that markets loathe uncertainty. The term “heightened uncertainty” may be a more accurate description, as there is always some uncertainty attached to investing.